Skip to content
Quant pricing engine · 6 model components

Know the real odds before you bet.

BetPlanners turns 316,000+ matches and 58 million+ player-stat records into probabilities and fair odds across 80+ markets: calibrated, out-of-sample, recalculated after every match. We’re not a bookmaker: we’re the analysis desk that prices the match; you decide where to bet.

80+markets priced
6model components
316,000+matches analysed
MODEL
Loading featured match…
The method

Built on the math, not the hype.

Six system components, measured on a real-match corpus of 300,000+ games and calibrated out-of-sample, with no post-hoc correction.

01 · Data
The corpus behind every prediction
60
Leagues · all continents
5,935
Teams · all Elo-rated
316,517
Matches analysed
58.3M
Player stat records
2.9M
Match events
02 · Model6 components · 8 layers
01

Poisson goal model

Goal distributions from historical scoring: the spine of every scoreline.

02

Elo ratings

Chess-style strength, updated after every match.

03

Recent form

Last 5-10 games weighted by recency: results, goals, momentum.

04

Home advantage

The home side gets a flat 100-point Elo adjustment, the same for every team and league.

05

Head-to-head

Persistent matchup effects between the two sides.

06

Player impact

The aggregated line-up --- bookings, fouls and tackles per 90 --- feeds the cards markets. On the goals markets it was measured and added nothing, so it is not used.

03 · Price
Recalculated after every match.
Out-of-sample validation · backtest without leakage

When we say 70%, it happens about 70% of the time.

A probability is only worth something if it’s calibrated. We measure ours the honest way (on matches the models never trained on) and plot every prediction against what actually happened.

0.003-0.013
ECE on the core markets
Average per market, 7 walk-forward folds, no after-the-fact calibration.
1-7%
Log-loss below the entropy floor
Out of sample, on almost every served market. Measurable skill, not a magic edge.
7 folds
Walk-forward 2018-2024
No leakage: never fitted on the matches it is measured against.
316,517 matches · 80+ markets · 8 model layers · ~46 models
Reliability diagram
perfect calibrationWe said 74.1%It happened 74.8%70-80% band, 7,671 cases00.5100.51Predicted probabilityObserved frequency
Real reliability diagram: 1X2, 155,114 matches over 13 seasons (2013-2025), raw model probabilities, out of sample. Each point is a 10-point probability band.
Analysis 360

Every team, scored and ranked.

Four quality pillars (attack, defense, form and solidity), each broken down into the goals-based sub-metrics behind it, and combined into one 360 Overall. Every score is 0-100 relative to the team’s own league.

-
-360 Overall
Indicators 4 quality pillars + 2 neutral readings
Attack-
Defense-
Form-
Solidity-
PredictabilityNeutral
-
Not a quality score. Lower = more volatile, harder to anticipate: not better or worse, and not part of the 360 Overall.
Efficiency vs xG-
AttackingN/A
DefendingN/A
Raw goals-to-xG ratio. High can be finishing talent or luck that regresses; low, a likely rebound. Only with advanced (xG) data.
Scores are 0-100 relative to the team’s own league: not across leagues. 360 Overall = Attack 35% · Defense 35% · Form 20% · Solidity 10%.

What makes us different.

A tipster hands you an opinion. BetPlanners hands you the numbers behind it, and the proof they hold up.

Tipster channels“Trust me.”
BetPlannersCalibrated · out-of-sample
Output
A single pick: take it or leave it
Calibrated probabilities + fair odds for every outcome
Markets
1X2, maybe over/under
80+ markets: 1X2, O/U, BTTS, correct score, handicaps, corners, cards
Method
Gut feel or one stat
6 weighted factors across ~46 models in 8 layers
Validation
Nothing you can verify
Walk-forward, 7 folds (2018-2024), no leakage
Transparency
Screenshots of the wins only
Reliability diagram + out-of-sample log-loss, open to inspect
Honesty
“Guaranteed” edges
No claim to beat the market: only measurable statistical skill
Responsible
Hype, urgency, FOMO
An analysis tool · 18+ · you decide
Price
€50-200+ a month for someone’s picks
From €14.99 a month: for the model, not tips

Plans for every type of bettor.

Every plan starts with a 7-day free trial. Cancel anytime.

Starter
€14.99
per month, VAT included
Start 7-day free trial
  • 50 leagues covered
  • ML predictions & 80+ markets every match
  • Team rankings & Elo, Compare up to 5
  • Match screener with every filter
  • Dashboard, favorites & up to 3 saved searches
Most popular
Professional
€29.99
per month, VAT included
Start 7-day free trial
  • Everything in Starter, plus
  • Full Analysis 360 across all leagues
  • Unlimited saved searches
  • Pro rankings: Predictability & Efficiency vs xG
  • Alerts: 5 types, unlimited

Frequently asked questions.

Yes! Both Starter and Professional plans include a 7-day free trial with full access to all features of your chosen plan. A card is required to start, but you won’t be charged during the trial and can cancel anytime before it ends, no questions asked. The trial is one per person and per card: if your card was already used for a trial on another account, you are charged when you subscribe.

REAL ODDS, NOT TIPS

Stop guessing.
Start pricing the match.

Join BetPlanners and turn 75+ million data points into decisions you can defend.

From €14.99/month · cancel anytime · 18+ play responsibly